In medical market research, one question we often hear from clients is:
“If a conjoint analysis reflects how customers make choices, why don’t the base case preference shares match reported market shares?”
It’s an understandable question, and one that goes to the heart of how conjoint analysis works. When we build a base case scenario that profiles all existing market products and price points, it’s tempting to expect the model to perfectly replicate current market shares. Sometimes it does, but often, it doesn’t, and that’s not a flaw. It’s exactly how conjoint is designed to work.
Conjoint analysis quantifies relative preference: how buyers trade off features and price when forced to choose between alternatives in a structured, rational decision environment. It isolates the intrinsic value of each attribute, helping us understand why one product or configuration is more appealing than another.
But conjoint is not intended to replicate the complexities of the real marketplace. In the real world, buyer behaviour is shaped by many external factors that conjoint deliberately controls for, such as:
In some med-tech categories, for example, consumable products like syringes or catheters, where switching barriers are low and competition is feature-driven, conjoint preference shares can approximate real-world market shares quite closely.
However, in capital equipment markets or in systems with strong institutional lock-in (for example, long-term tenders or framework agreements), the correlation is weaker. In those cases, the conjoint base case should be viewed not as a mirror, but as an indicator, revealing the latent potential for each brand if buyers were making purely feature and price-based decisions.
The true value of conjoint lies in what happens next. At IDR Medical, we use conjoint preference data as the foundation for understanding and forecasting market behaviour.
Even on its own, without further modelling, conjoint data delivers powerful insight: it represents a forward-looking snapshot of how the market would behave if every stakeholder were to make a fresh decision today, based purely on product features, perceived value, and price. In other words, it shows the unbiased potential of each brand or concept before procurement structures, legacy contracts, marketing reach or distribution constraints come into play.
This forward-looking view is incredibly valuable for med-tech companies. It helps identify latent demand, competitive vulnerabilities, and emerging value drivers long before they are visible in market share data.
When deeper commercial forecasting is required, we build on this foundation through market simulation modelling. Integrating additional real-world factors to project how market share could evolve under different scenarios, such as a new product launch, a pricing change, or a competitor upgrade.
To do this effectively, we combine the conjoint preference outputs with market-level calibrators, including:
Understanding the sales footprint of each supplier is especially critical. A product with high conjoint appeal may still underperform commercially if the manufacturer lacks the sales coverage, tender access, or logistical reach to convert preference into purchases.
By integrating these commercial factors, we can “translate” conjoint preference shares into realistic sales forecasts, simulating market uptake across different pricing or positioning scenarios. But even without that modelling layer, conjoint preference data alone provides a clear and strategic view of where the market is heading, not just where it stands today.
For Med-Tech manufacturers, distinguishing between preference and market reality is essential. A conjoint model that ends with preference shares tells you who should win; a calibrated market simulation tells you who will win, and under what conditions.
That’s why, at IDR Medical, every conjoint project we deliver is more than a set of choice tasks. It’s the foundation for a strategic simulation framework that connects stated preferences with market dynamics, enabling evidence-based decisions around:
Conjoint analysis doesn’t predict today’s market; it reveals the potential of tomorrows.
By combining rigorous quantitative modelling with deep understanding of med-tech market dynamics, IDR Medical helps clients move from preference data to commercial reality forecasting not only what customers want, but what they will actually buy, and at what price.
Contact us to discuss how conjoint analysis can drive your med-tech strategy and market growth.
This article is the first in IDR Medical's 3-Part Conjoint Insights Series, exploring how conjoint analysis helps Med-Tech companies move from customer preference data to commercial reality.